Rocklin Home Sales: A Buyers Market Is Coming
If The Current Trend Continues, It Could Be Right Around The Corner
West Rocklin Home Sales have really slowed down. In fact, throughout south Placer County this is happening. This trend began about May / June of 2013. Here are some statistics.
Over the last 6 months:
1) The average time it takes a home to go into contract has almost doubled from 20 days to 37 days, up 85% from August to January.
2) Sales have plummeted over 48%. (Number of homes sold.)
Over the last 12 months:
1) Sales have declined 34.9%.
2) The number of homes on the market in the West Rocklin area has increased 90% from 34 to 61 homes for sale not including the new homes that have come on the market over the last couple of months.
3) In February, March and April of 2013, the market was consistently paying 101% of the listed price. In August, September and October of 2013, the market was paying 96.6% of the listed price. That’s a 4.4% loss to sellers.
Does this sound like a “hot” real estate market? Compared to the correction we had last spring, it sure doesn’t!
From August 2012 to January 2013, there were more homes sold than there were homes coming on the market. See the graph below from Metrolist Services, Inc where 95% of all homes for sale are listed in our region.
The dark green bars indicate sold homes versus the light green representing homes for sale. Conversely, over the last 6 months we have the reverse. See the graph below.
Here we have more homes coming on the market than we have homes selling. See the difference?
What Could Be Causing This Trend In Rocklin Home Sales?
Last spring, the market got scorching hot. No one I know really expected it to get as hot as it did. What we experienced last spring and early summer was a correction in home prices in my opinion. The average sales price increase over 23% from January to July, 2013.
The definition of a market where it is cheaper to buy then rent is “undervalued”. That’s where the market was. Homes looked almost free to homebuyers and buying a home was really tough. You had to come in WELL over asking and pay for everything.
The correction brought prices up to where they needed to be and by May / June 2013 it was over. Prices had risen so fast that it quashed the market by early summer. From July 2013 to January 2014, the average sales price actually declined just under 4%. It’s the tale of two markets!
Many sellers seem to think, and their agents aren’t helping, that the market we experienced last spring is still here. Seller’s listing now seem to think the sky is the limit. Not so as is clearly indicated by the statistics, the economy and the lending environment which is MUCH different than it was 10 years ago.
From January 2013 to January 2014, the average sales price has gone up in the West Rocklin home sales by 18.8%. This is an enormous jump but the party is over for that kind of appreciation going forward in the short term. See the graph below. Notice that right around August, prices started trending down. This means that the homes selling in May / June were closing in July at peak spring numbers. From then on, the trend is downward.
It’s typical that the general public and the media is normally 6 months behind the power curve regarding real estate trends. A sale can take 30 to 60 days to complete so it’s the nature of the statistics to be a little behind what’s happening now. That’s where a good real estate agent comes in. Someone who knows the local market trends and can advise sellers where they should be priced to sell for the most money possible.
Listing too high, as I’ve said time and time again, will net a seller less money in the end the majority of the time. The market is saying, right now, that home prices are too high and as the number of homes available for sale is bound to increase as we get deeper into the spring, it could only get worse for sellers. As it does take time for these things to adjust, we could be in a market stalemate, between buyers and sellers, for the remainder of the year.
That sounds so uplifting! LOL
Thanks for visiting!
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