Rocklin Home Sales Decline BIG!!
The Housing Recovery Is Officially Stalled
The national housing news has been reporting that sales are slumping for the past several months with the loudest voices harking out over the last month.
Real estate sales in the greater Sacramento region have stalled or at best, declined year over year. Finding bright spots in national real estate news hasn’t been easy the last month or so.
The causes for this are many..the economy, affordability, interest rates going up slightly and incomes have all added to the uncertainty on a local level.
Below is a table listing the state of real estate sales in South Placer County. Individual zip codes within each city could be a higher or lower percentage of decline.
|
City (all zips) |
Year Over Year Sales |
|
Rocklin |
Down 13% |
|
Roseville |
Down 15% |
|
Lincoln |
Down 7.8% |
|
Granite Bay |
Down 12.5% |
|
Newcastle |
Down 28.6% |
|
Auburn |
Down 21.1% |
|
Penryn |
Down 77.8% |
West Rocklin Home Sales
Rocklin home sales have been declining for several months but not at the level we’re now seeing now. West Rocklin home sales have declined almost 23% over the same month last year. By this time last year, the correction we had in the spring began to slow and by July, home values had begun a slight decline through December then picked up again in January.
See the graph and table below.
Rocklin Homes For Sale
Sales have declined, year over year, in March, May and June; the height of the selling season. Only in April were sales higher than in April of 2013.
Despite sales slumping, home values rose this month 2.8% and 9.1% year over year (see graph below). As you can see by the table above, the number of homes coming on the market increased by almost 102% over last year. That said, it’s still just 2.5 months of homes that are available for sale, at the current pace of sales, which is still considered a seller’s market.
My sense is that if the inventory climbs up to 3.5 to 4.5 months, values might come down or settle to some degree. We are already seeing a slowing in value appreciation.
I wouldn’t expect a value decline, if it even happens, to be sharp and a dip into the pit we just came out of. If anything, I think we may be looking at a settling. Should the inventory continue to increase we could, once again, see declining values in West Rocklin.
Sales being slow in the height of the selling season doesn’t bode will for the fall and winter months which are fast approaching.
Summary
Sales are slumping but values are continuing to rise but for two out of the last three months, we’ve been down in single digit appreciation. This indicates the beginning of a slowing in appreciation which could get worse if the market doesn’t pick up heading into the fall and winter months.
The good news is that the market, right now, isn’t bad and homes for sale that have properly prepared to sell are still moving in under 30 days. The market is one heck of a lot better for homeowners than it was from 2007 to late 2011.
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