Rocklin Pending Sales Crash
Summer Anomaly Or Signal Of Changing Times?
The summer Rocklin real estate selling pattern seems to always have a touch of a level off or slowdown right around the month of July. It’s been that way for as long as I’ve specialized in South Placer County real estate.
Since the beginning of the year, pending sales have gone up. In checking zip codes in Lincoln and Roseville, you see a spike but it isn’t as dramatic as what we’ve seen in Rocklin 95765. See the graph below.
As you can see, from January to May, pending sales shoot way up. This is indicative of great buyer activity which means credit is obtainable and the homes that are available are selling. Great! Just what the economy needs. Then we fast forward, well not too fast, to June. See the graph below.
As you can see, June gave us a sharp downturn in pending sales which indicates weaker buyer activity. As I said above, it’s not uncommon to see a leveling off or even a slight decline in pending sales at some point in the summer schedule due to family vacations, etc., but a 22.7% decline is unusual.
I’ve read recently that the Bay Area market is turning down due to affordability and the local economies. This article is one of many showing how the market is beginning to cool and this article is showing how credit suddenly got harder to get in June. Both are reputable sources of info.
So What’s This Mean?
Honestly, while unusual, this is just one month’s stats. Next month could point to the pending sale number coming up. While I doubt, if it does come up, that it will erase a 22.7% decline or even come close it would show that it was just a bump in the road. If the pending sale numbers continue to decline, it could be the beginning of a trend downward in sales and home values.
Other than reports of a slow down, I’m not seeing anything in the news that would lead me to believe there is a “downturn” coming of any consequence. The slowdown in sales will certainly mean a leveling off or slight decline in home values but it seems like we’re up against affordability issues locally so an adjustment might be just what’s needed to maintain market health.
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